Really Big Numbers #2
As we hopefully are all aware, your chances of winning a Powerball Jackpot are very very low. In fact your chances of purchasing a ticket that matches all five white balls and the sixth Powerball are about 1 in 200 million. Our brain understands how infinitesimally small this is, but we really struggle to visualize it. Check out this cool site (update: this site does not simulate Powerball exactly, it is just a random lotto visual that is a bit harder to win than Powerball. Thanks “WhyWait?” for pointing this out.) that helps put it in perspective. The site simulates you trying to pick a winning lottery ticket by giving you 10 random tickets per second. I’ve left this simulation running on my computer for long enough to buy over 500,000 tickets and I’ve yet to have one ticket matching 5 or 6 balls (2x for 4 balls).
To take this even further - your chances of dying in a car wreck on the way to the store to buy your Powerball ticket are far greater than your chances of winning the jackpot:
Government statistics show there are about 1.7 automobile caused fatalities for every 100,000,000 vehicle-miles. If you drive one mile to the store to buy your lottery ticket and then return home, you have driven two miles. Thus the probability that you will join this statistical group is 2 x 1.7 / 100,000,000 = 0.000000034. This can also be stated as “One in 29,411,765-”. Thus, if you drive to the store to buy your Powerball ticket, your chance of being killed (or killing someone else) is nearly 7 times greater than the chance that you will win the Powerball Jackpot.
This isn’t 100% accurate…Take a look at the numbers as they scroll down below the selected ticket numbers…The scrolling numbers only take into account an EXACT match for each of the “Ticket Numbers.” For example if the ticket numbers are 44,10,3, etc and a 3 scrolls down below the 10, it doesn’t count that as a hit. Whereas in lottery the actual number location is irreleveant as long as you hit all 6 numbers…
Just an FYI. Either way, lotto is not worth playing, like you said. But that site is not accurate…
Good catch. As you state, in Powerball the order of the first five numbers doesn’t matter. Also, I failed to notice that the visual lottery also uses more balls than Powerball. I bet the jackpots would get extremely high if this visual lottery system was ever implemented.
Thing big or go home. I like to think of it as a 50/50 chance of winning. Either I win or someone else wins.
Either way it’s worth $1 to day dream of having that much money.